Round Five: The Tipping Point

Full credit to the Blues but the last two years of Aupiki have felt inevitable. They set the standard and then everyone else tried (and failed!) to chase them down. This season though there's been a shift and with two rounds to go, all teams are in the hunt for a spot in the final. With even the hosting rights still technically at play for three of the teams.

So today, I thought we'd look at the match previews but also each of these team's pathway to the top.

In the above graphics I've laid out the best case scenario for each team. The Manawa can't host a final but they do still have a very narrow pathway to play in it. They need two wins, other results and bonus points if they are going to claw into second spot. By contrast the easiest ride is for Matatū who just need to win one of the two remaining matches and they are in with or without bonus points.

The journey from here is most interesting for the Blues and the Poua as their place in the final relies on the other team stumbling. Right now, only one point separates the two on the table. Win only one of the two remaining matches and the other team could leap frog you on the table. If they win the remaining two rounds and if the other team does too, bonus points and scorelines start to really matter. The Blues have a slight advantage here in that they have one more bonus point in the bank.

In order for the Poua or Blues to not just make the final but host, they need everything to go perfectly for them, for Matatū to lose both remaining matches AND for Matatū not get any bonus points.

All I can say is congratulations to all the players for making this year's competition one of the tightest yet! With all those scenarios in mind, let's preview this week's matches.

GAME ONE: Blues vs Manawa, 4.35pm TODAY!!!
at Semenoff Stadium, Whangārei

The last time these two played, the Blues took the win with just one point. Coming into this round, they have both made changes to the sides that gave us that cliffhanger.

The Blues are at full strength in their forward pack. Maama Vaipulu welcomed back into the starting lineup after her red card suspension. I'm expecting a massive performance from her. Her combination with Maia Roos is a famous one for this side and may just be the x factor they've been looking for.

In the back line, they have tinkered a bit with the set up. Hollyrae Mete-Renata starts at 12 pushing Sylvia Brunt to 13, Mererangi Paul to the wing and Katelyn Vahaakolo to the bench. That bench looks strong for the Blues with a whole lot of power ready to cause havoc in the back 20.

Manawa have made changes, again. Tynealle Fitzgerald is out with Leata Puni-Lio starting at 7. A new 9/10 combo or rather, the same combo that played the Blues all the way back in round 2 with Carys Dallinger returning from injury. Outside her, Shyrah Tuliau-Tua'a is on the bench meaning Presayus Singh gets the start.

It's the 20th match of two of the Manawa's stalwarts, Chyna Hohepa and Mia Anderson. I expect them both to put in a heck of a shift.

In an ordinary season, you would look at these lineups and call the game the Blues to lose. But this season has shown there's little point in predicting what way the ball will bounce. It'll come down to who managed to park the disappointment of last week and turns up ready to go again.

GAME TWO: Matatū vs Poua, 2.05pm Saturday
Fraser Park, Timaru

Matatū have made changes which aren't choices for the first time this season. Laura Bayfield and Hannah King both unavailable due to injury. So this, along with tactical shifts, sees a different Matatū side running out tomorrow.

Nat Delamere is back the starting lineup and this time her replacement is Jett Hayward on the bench. A new locking combo of Emma Dermody and Paris Lokotui emerges. In the back row this week it's Lucy Jenkins who joins Kaipo Olsen-Baker and Elinor-Plum King. Jenkins has been out for a while so I'm expecting a big performance from her.

With Hannah King out, Charntay Poko comes in. I'm somewhat surprised by this. I had thought they might push Maia Joseph out to 10 as she played with real confidence there back in her Otago Spirit days. Poko is known to the squad though, having been a part of their winning season back in 2023. Other than that, their back line is unchanged.

The Poua meanwhile have made no changes to the Blues beating starting line up of last week. Only tweak is Kokako Raki in for Rangimarie Sturmey on the bench. Good, this team deserve to be rewarded with another opportunity to keep this unreal run going. Iritana Hohaia is also set to become the most capped player in the franchises history in her 20th match.

Momentum is a heck of a drug and Poua fans like me are overdosing on hope-ium right now. This team has proven they are giant slayers and who better to take on at this crucial part of the season than their old foes Matatū.

All I can say is, RISE UP POUA!

With you,
Alice