Scores to settle from RWC25

It's only round two of the Pacific Four Series and it's already basically the finals. The nature of this round robin competition means losers from last week need to pick up a win to avoid the wooden spoon and the winners need to sidestep a loss to win the silverware with a week to spare.

It also just so happens that we get two Rugby World Cup 2025 rematches. The Black Ferns have a chance to get their revenge from their semi final knockout against Canada. While USA will want more than a draw this time against to Aussies to make up for the pool A shutout in 2025.

ALL OF THE STAKES ARE HIGH! So let's take a look at some comparisons to see what they may reveal about this weekend.

BLACK FERNS VS CANADA - Kick off 10.15am Saturday NZ Time

What was once just another match in the schedule has grown into a real rivalry between these two nations. Their battle gifting the Pacific Four Series actual meaning. The Women's Six Nations call the match played between England and France, Le Crunch. When we finally start marketing this tournament properly we will need to coin a nickname for this fixture.

It's the first time they face off since the Black Ferns had no answer in 2025. The teams they have named for Saturday have rung in the changes. They are spread across the starting line up and both teams have entirely new benches. The points of interest for me though are at halfback and back row.

It's the master Justine Pelletier vs the apprentice Maia Joseph at starting halfback. Then the bench will introduce two new 9s into this face off. The Black Ferns finally played with some pace off the base last week, 80% of our rucks were 3 seconds of less. That's a 6% from the semifinal. We will all hope the weather and our nerve holds to allow that type of tempo to continue this week.

That speed and ruck efficiency has become a hallmark of Canada's game. The Black Ferns have two choices in response, disrupt it or match it. The halfbacks will be driving the latter whereas the back row will want to cause havoc.

Kévin Rouet has named Gabrielle Senft, Julia Omokhuale and Fabiola Forteza to get to work. It's a fresh combination but not an inexperienced one. Senft often saves her best matches for the Black Ferns so I expect the same from her this week. Whereas Whitney Hansen has gone for the established combination of Liana Mikaele-Tu'u, Kennedy Tukuafu and Kaipo Olsen-Baker.

These three were not quite up to snuff last week. Allowing USA's loosies to pinch too much ball for my taste. The trios performance are key to this match for the Black Ferns. If they turn up to play then it's game on.

Unfortunately, the thing that killed us in 2025 was still a problem last week — our discipline.

In the semifinal last year, we conceded 10 penalties to Canada's 6. Last week, we collected 12 penalties. Ugh. Worse still, we had two yellow cards and a red. Yes, Tanya Kalounivale was subsequently cleared post match but the impulse to put in a risky challenge midfield, to a ruck that was already lost, is a worry to me.

It's South African ref, Aimee Barrett-Theron, in the middle for this one. She refereed the semi too and is one of the game's best. We need to be operating with cooler heads to stay on side with her and get on top of this Canadian outfit.

It's not just redemption but a World Ranking on the line. If New Zealand win, they are back in the number two spot. Of course, I ultimately want the Black Ferns back as World Champions but climbing to number two would be a great start to this World Cup cycle.

Prediction: New Zealand by 12 and under, 26-24

USA vs WALLAROOS - Kick off 1pm Saturday NZT

I can tell you now an interview request has been accepted by new USA and former England assistant, Lou Meadows. So watch this space for more information on what is cooking in the USA camp. In the meantime though, we get a peek as they square up against old foes Australia.

They have gone tit for tat in last few face offs. USA getting up 32-25 in 2024 and Wallaroos winning 58-17 in 2023. In the World Cup last year after an incredibly dramatic match, they were all square at 31 all. That draw enough for Australia to go through to the quarter finals.

It's hard to know what we will see from Aussie this week because the conditions and opposition gave us little to look at in round one. What we did see though is some really dogged defense, particularly on the goal line. So whatever they launch on attack we know they will be ready to defend.

The second half blowout to one side, USA put on one of the stronger performances I've seen from them in recent times. Their ruck work and direct running lines impressive against a top side. But as the scoreline suggested, their defense let them down. They got caught out on the edge, something Desi Miller and Maya Stewart will want to exploit this week.

It maybe doesn't have quite the same drama or draw as the Black Ferns Canada match but I am looking forward to this one. They are two fairly evenly matched teams who can be bloody brilliant when they decide to lock in. Here's hoping they both do this Saturday.

Prediction: USA by 12 and under, 31-26

Les and I are back in full swing now with our podcast. We will be dropping a new episode for you on Tuesday to review the action from this weekend.

Then looking ahead, we are working on assembling an exciting round table to unpack the whole series. Honing in on what we've learnt about each of the four nations when it concludes next weekend.

With you,

Alice