The final round of PAC4

And just like that, we are almost at the end of another Pacific Four Series. Only two games are left before we find our winner. After they dispatched the Canadians last week, the only thing that could stop the Black Ferns from here is the Aussies. To pull that off, they would have to do what's never been done and beat New Zealand.

So odds are it's a victorious weekend for Whitney Hansen's Black Ferns. Still, let's take a look at each of these teams and talk about what a win will look like for each of them.

CANADA VS USA - KICK OFF 12PM SATURDAY NZT

Last year, the USA went down to Canada 26-14 and it was their best game of the series. As the tournament went South so did their results. Closing out with that absolute spanking in Auckland, where Portia Woodman-Wickliffe couldn't stop scoring tries.

By contrast this series, they put up a valiant effort against the Black Ferns in game one. With just four points separating them at the half. They then grew against the Aussies last week, pulling away in the second half to win 33-12. If they can find another level against their old foes Canada, the series will be a win for their new coaching set up.

It's sitting there in their stats if they can hold their nerve. Across the board there's an improvement but it's most noticeable in their set piece and ruck work. This tournament they are averaging seven turnovers per game, that's four more than 2025. Their scrum has gone from 80% success in 2025 to 100% in 2026 (take a bow front row!!) and their lineouts have also improved from 76% success to 87% this year.

Their running metres were through the roof last week against Australia. Where they only managed 506 post contact metres total in 2025, they ran in 514 in just that match.

All of these numbers point to the development of their forward pack. Players like Hope Rogers, Hallie Taufoou, series captain Erica Jarrell-Searcy and Georgie Perris-Redding have really developed in the PWR. There's talent coming out of the WER too as Hann Humphreys has been a standout in their debut season with the Eagles.

To give the backs their credit, Bella Vogel appears to be what they were missing at last year's World Cup. The teenage 10 steering them around the park with confidence. Combining well with all the halfback options she's been paired with. She's a credit to the age grade system that's developing in the USA. She captained the U18 7s team at the global games played here in NZ and toured with the USA U20s.

Long time fans of the women's game will remember the shift that Canada experienced once their forward pack started really to click post 2017 World Cup. I am hopeful that the green shoots we have seen from USA this series could grow into something special.

The only trouble for them this weekend is Canada will have a point to prove.

Honestly, I don't feel like we have seen the Canadians yet this year. The wet of the first round meant play was heavily dictated by conditions. The World Cup semi final rematch against the Black Ferns had them looking unusually rattled.

We have seen glimpses of their brilliance in performances from Justine Pelletier, Pamphinette Buisa and Emily Tuttosi. But their game changers, Sophie de Goede and Alex Tessier, have been missing.

If we give them grace, we can say that the conditions haven't been optimal in the lead up to their matches. Being delayed two weeks in a row is far from ideal but the time for excuses is over. If they want to take something from this weekend, it has to be a big win. Anything less will feel like a disappointing start to their year.

A win for USA is: Holding the standards they have set for themselves this series, keeping the Canadians within touch.
A win for Canada is: finding their rhythm and blowing USA out of the water
My predication is: 38-24 to Canada

BLACK FERNS VS WALLAROOS - KICK OFF 9.45pm SATURDAY NZT

When I sat down with Whitney at the beginning of the year, she outlined 4 things she wanted her Black Ferns side to be. So how is the team performing against this criteria?

1. Unpredictable

Week one I clocked that across the back line, we were seeing ball put to boot. I made a note to see if this was a way we were evolving our attack. Last week, this disappeared with the Ruahei Demant and Renee Holmes seemingly the only ones allowed to kick. Even when Mererangi Paul was on the edge and you would have expected her now signature kick chase, she carried instead.

We had 208 post contact metres week one and then 537 week two. We've played territory, we've played possession. We've played a tip ball to cascading back door options that is a thing of beauty.

It's gorgeous chaos that we know and love. A tick for unpredictable.

2. Physically Dominant

They had 25 dominant tackles against Canada. More than any other stat, it was this that shifted them from number three back to number two in the world. As my co-ho Les Elder put it best on the podcast this week.

"When I've thought about the Black Ferns, that first 1,2 and 3 in the team have always sent the chill down my spine as to where this team sits. And I do think that we lost it for a bit."

We are so back. That young gun combo of Chryss Viliko and Veisinia Mahutariki-Fakalelu would give anyone the shivers.

3. Relentless

I present to you the points flow charts of the last two games.

I rest my case.

4. Clinical

This is probably the area we need to see on full display tomorrow. We have seen moments of it, like the hairy moments in game one with two players in the bin. Discipline will the the difference for me, can cool heads prevail?

Whitney set this metric at 90% accuracy when it counts. So I think there's still a little way to grow.

What about the poor ol' Aussies? My win for them tomorrow is probably a little less of the footy and a little more of the pageantry.

It's been absolute scenes across the Women's Six Nations this year. All nations riding high after the ground breaking World Cup last year. It's no secret then that the pressure is on Rugby Australia who are up next as hosts for both the men's and women's tournament.

I wrote earlier this year about the significance of this ANZAC test. Not because of the military patriotism but because of the potential to leverage our trans-Tasman relationship for growth. They have finally got a fixture with New Zealand on this auspicious day. Can they make it into an event that could provide a proper platform for our rivalry in the way the silverware has failed to?

Win for Wallaroos is: Being a good host to show what's possible
Win for Black Ferns is: Nailing all four points and showing off new talent
Predication from me is: Black Ferns run riot. 66-5

With you,
Alice